Pandas Weekly Newsletter 3/19

Every week we review everything you need to know about the stock market for the week ahead as an active or passive trader.

Market Big Picture & Long-Term Technicals

$SPX started last week off with futures up 1.8% only to reverse by the morning and gap down near 3800-3810 support. This level held, putting in a low for the rest of the week. We had a noisy week with headlines surrounding the banks, CPI data, PPI data, Jobless claims and finally OPEX.

We have been keeping a close eye on the weekly trendline resistance that broke out in January (see chart). There were 2 weeks of consolidation outside of this trendline, 2 weeks of back tests, followed by a decisive break and close under it two weeks ago. Then this past week, after bouncing off 3810, price moved back above the weekly trendline setting up a false breakdown from the week prior. Reclaiming this trendline sparked a 50pt rally above back testing 3950 resistance which was previously the trendline support and location of the two back tests. To close out the week, we saw price close precisely on this weekly trendline (now support) right ahead of FOMC week.

Heading into FOMC week, we’re in an interesting spot for price that presents a simple game plan. If we see the strength in tech continue into this week, a move back through 3950 sets the stage for a rally back to 4058. Below 3811 presents a big opportunity for shorts while everything in between should be considered range bound and harder to navigate.

Economic Calendar & Earnings

source: (investing.com)

Notable Earnings: NKE 0.00%↑ GME 0.00%↑ CHWY 0.00%↑

source: earningswhispers.com

Near Term Outlook & Trade Plan

SPX 3950 targets 3972, 4000, 4019

SPX 3850-3950 = chop zone

SPX 3850 targets 3810, 3764, 3724

Pandas Weekly Watchlist

Our Favorite Trade Setup - QQQ over 311

Contract: QQQ 3/22 313c

Targets: 312.50, 314.69, 320.74

Stop: 308.60

Notes: Showed relative strength last week with tech seeing some rotation. If tech can continue to lead the market this week then calls over 311 level can work great targeting 320 area.

Join our Discord!

We provide live commentary, trade alerts, education, and more every day in our discord room. Watch the video below to see inside our room before you consider joining! Join anytime here: https://discord.gg/4CXuRRzwHU

---