Pandas Weekly Newsletter 4/14/24
Every week we review everything you need to know about the stock market for the week ahead as an active or passive trader.
Market Big Picture & Long-Term Technicals
After trend broke over a week ago on Thursday, we set out into this week with a fight to defend from bulls. First we had the last couple days of last week trying to reclaim the trendline. Then this week after the market sold on CPI, 5138 tested multiple times with volatile bounces following as a result. Friday sold back to those lows where bulls weren’t so lucky. We got a very clean breakdown trade that worked flawlessly almost hitting our 5094 target in 1 day.
We discussed just over a week ago how it wouldn’t be surprising to see the markets look for a reason to sell. Many will try to make sense of it and point to varying headlines. For us as traders, the “why” is important, but not as important as sticking to our gameplan and trading level to level, controlling risk all the while.
From here, the market is anticipating a large gap down due to the conflict overseas. Unless bulls reclaim 5138 this week, sellers stay in control and we are setup for at least a 10% correction. We’re already about 3% off the highs. This is normal in bull markets, and even welcomed. Watch for pops to get sold and supports that get multiple attempts to break for downside trades.
Economic Calendar & Earnings
source: investing.com
Notable earnings: GS 0.00%↑ BAC 0.00%↑ UNH 0.00%↑ JNJ 0.00%↑ MS 0.00%↑ UAL 0.00%↑ ASML 0.00%↑ NFLX 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ AX 0.00%↑ PG 0.00%↑
Near Term Outlook & Trade Plan
SPX 5138 targets 5189
SPX 5094 - 5138 = chop zone
SPX 5094 targets 5057
Pandas Weekly Watchlist
Our Favorite Trade Setup - JPM under 182.54
Contract: JPM 4/19 180p
Levels: 180.21, 176.31, 172.96
Stop: 184.30
Notes: JPM 0.00%↑ gapped down on earnings last week and will be a top watch for us this week for continuation under the lows from Friday at 182.54. Next level is at 180.21 but its a pretty minor level. If banks continue to report poorly this week, this has a lot more room to drop.
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Want to review our performance first? Here was last weeks performance along with a link to the entire years worth of alert data.
